From a2e315413f1569f6de77c755051cab0344e28f11 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Drew Haven Date: Sat, 9 Aug 2025 16:23:34 -0700 Subject: [PATCH] Drafts for values and Checking in on 2025 --- src/content/blog/checking-in-on-2025.md | 151 ++++++++++++++++++++++++ src/content/page/values.md | 73 ++++++++++++ 2 files changed, 224 insertions(+) create mode 100644 src/content/blog/checking-in-on-2025.md create mode 100644 src/content/page/values.md diff --git a/src/content/blog/checking-in-on-2025.md b/src/content/blog/checking-in-on-2025.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7674548 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/content/blog/checking-in-on-2025.md @@ -0,0 +1,151 @@ +--- +title: "Checking in on 2025 - Where we are and where we are headed. +description: "At the beginning of the year I made a few predictions about where things were headed. It's been a chaotic and tumultuous seven months. It's worth reviewing my predictions to see how they have borne out, where they were accurate, where they were incorrect and what I may have missed." +--- + +I was lost at the start of the year. I couldn't see forward. Donald Trump had just recently won the presidency and was poised to unleash chaos on the U.S. government and global economy. It was hard to imagine what 2025 would look like. So much was uncertain (and still is). I sat down and attempted to gather some of the forces that I could see creating pressure on the systems of the world so that I could get some idea of where things were heading so that I could plan. + +These aren't really predictions as much as an observation of pressures on the system. I didn't write down "the California fire-insurance market will collapse" as much as I wrote that climate change was going to create an increasing number of disasters and strain the insurance market. + +So how well did I recognize these forces? All the ones I mention seem to still be significant. That's not really a surprise. Recognizing large forces is not hard and it's likely that they will continue to exist in six months. + +Where I was most wrong was in what I missed. The things I didn't predict are the ones that will cause the most chaos because they are the ones I couldn't plan for. It's not the predictions that surprise us, it's the things we didn't predict. + +## Predictions for 2025 + +### Growing wealth inequality + +Wealth inequality has been growing in the US. This means that there are fewer people who are able to spend and drive the economy. This has a lot of knock-on effects where markets are splitting into low-end and high-end with little in the middle. + +Examples: + +- Lambos +- Free-to-play games +- + +### Climate Change + +The world's climate is becoming more extreme and unpredictable. The world also doesn't seem like it's towards addressing it. We are in for more extreme weather situations. + +Examples: + +- Pacific Palisade's fire +- +- +- [How Climate Denial is Fueling a U.S. Homeowners Insurance Crisis and Risking a 2008-Style Financial Meltdown](https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/02/how-climate-denial-is-fueling-a-u-s-homeowners-insurance-crisis-and-risking-a-2008-style-financial-meltdown.html) +- [Blackouts Are Becoming the Norm Can the U.S. Power Grid Be Saved](https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/02/blackouts-are-becoming-the-norm-can-the-u-s-power-grid-be-saved.html) + +Threats: + +- Bigger natural disasters +- Strained insurance systems + +### Conservative Themes Increase + +- Xenophobia +- Transphobia +- Racism +- Misogyny +- Nationalism +- Religious division + +Examples: + +- Twitter +- Trump +- Facebook +- Far-right media +- + +### Economic uncertainty + +- +- + +### Inequality and Extraction + +#### Continued Automation, Off-shoring and AI + +Jobs continue to be off-shored or replaced. Worker productivity is going up, but there are fewer jobs in the US. + +Examples: + +- + +#### Capital's growing power over labor + +The capital owners have more and more leverage over workers. This comes from many people looking for work and companies being able to get away with more and more consolidation, meaning fewer potential employers who can abuse workers more. + +There are some attempts to push back in the form of union drives, but the incoming administration is hostile to worker power. + +Examples: + +- Gig work +- Retirement is getting harder +- Fight for higher minimum wages + +Effects: + +- Harder to switch jobs +- Lower benefits +- Growing assets as companies are more profitable + +#### Rising cost-of-living + +Costs will increase, and not come down any time soon. + +The Easton Fire this year will all but ensure that housing prices will remain high due to the lower stock and large number of displaced people. Supplies and labor will be tied up for years. + +Examples: + +- Housing +- Eggs +- Education + +#### Increasing household debt + +Is there a crash that would happen? Probably not because there's low risk of contagion on wall street. + +#### Deteriorating Health Insurance + +Healthcare in the US is getting harder to get and more expensive. We seem to be reaching the point that it is becoming a national crisis. It seems unlikely that our government will make meaningful reforms since thee area is very profitable. + +Examples: + +- Price of insulin +- Increased claim denials +- Luigi Mangione + +### Technology + +#### Continued growth of AI + +AI will continue to grow over the next year. It will be searching for use cases and will refine the ones it has already. Agentic AI will continue to improve. + +I think it's unlikely there will be any major leaps forward. + + + +#### Cryptocurrency + +This will gain strength over the next year, but remain niche. Prices will continue to rise for the major currencies, even as scams and rug-pulls continue. + +## What I missed + +### Economic Chaos + +- Tariffs +- Export controls +- Dropping regulatory enforcement +- Mass layoffs + +- The Fed has stayed largely independent + +### Crackdown on Facts and Dissenting Opinions + +- CBS capitulation +- Trump's war against any who disagree +- Firing of BLS director over poor jobs numbers +- Rewriting of federal information to align with ideological goals +- Installing more partisan oversight in agencies +- Attacks on universities and funding diff --git a/src/content/page/values.md b/src/content/page/values.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..eec097f --- /dev/null +++ b/src/content/page/values.md @@ -0,0 +1,73 @@ +--- +title: Values +--- + +I am doing an experiment with trying to clearly define my values so that I can +know when I am living up to them. + +The psychologist [Carl Rogers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_Rogers) +described the idea of congruence/incongruence. It's roughly the difference +between your lived self and your ideal self. It's the difference between "I +am" and "I should". Incongruence, a large gap between the two, leads to a +tension between what you are doing and what you think you should be doing. I +believe that everyone will be happier and experience more of their potential if +they are living and growing in line with their ideals. + +## My Values + +### Equity + +- Everyone should have the means to live a healthy and meaningful life. +- This applies to people now and in the future. +- Everyone should have a fair voice in decisions that affect them. + +### Integrity + +- Take responsibility for your own actions. +- Hold others accountable and responsible for their actions. +- Give honest feedback. +- Take the time to do good work. +- Be proud of your work. +- Be your authentic self. + +### Sustainability and long-term thinking + +- Think not about the short- or long-term, but about the equilibrium, the forever-term. +- Do not sacrifice the future for the present. +- Do not sacrifice the present for the future. + +### Cooperation over competition + +- We build better when we work together. +- We can challenge each other without having to compete. +- Resources should not be scarce. +- Share information, materials and goods. +- Hold others responsible for sharing alike. + +### Self-improvement + +- Be curious and motivated to learn and understand. +- Be open to feedback and learning. +- Learn new things. +- Seek to understand. +- Embrace failure as an opportunity to learn. +- Take the time to review and retrospect. +- Help others learn and grow by giving them resources, training and feedback. + +### Self-reliance + +- Enable everyone to work with minimal interruption by reducing the dependence on each other. +- We should work together but not be dependent on one another. +- Many strong units weakly coupled are more resilient than rigid or hierarchical structures. +- Invest in your health and stability. + +## Corollaries + +### Environmentalism + +- We must preserve our planet so that future people will have at least the same opportunities we currently do. + +### Anti-capitalism + +- Modern capitalism is a system that is built on and perpetuates inequity. +- Modern capitalism creates and exploits dependency.