---
title: "Checking in on 2025 - Where we are and where we are headed."
description: "At the beginning of the year I made a few predictions about where things were headed.  It's been a chaotic and tumultuous seven months.  It's worth reviewing my predictions to see how they have borne out, where they were accurate, where they were incorrect and what I may have missed."
---

I was lost at the start of the year. I couldn't see forward. Donald Trump had just recently won the presidency and was poised to unleash chaos on the U.S. government and global economy. It was hard to imagine what 2025 would look like. So much was uncertain (and still is). I sat down and attempted to gather some of the forces that I could see creating pressure on the systems of the world so that I could get some idea of where things were heading so that I could plan.

These aren't really predictions as much as an observation of pressures on the system. I didn't write down "the California fire-insurance market will collapse" as much as I wrote that climate change was going to create an increasing number of disasters and strain the insurance market.

So how well did I recognize these forces? All the ones I mention seem to still be significant. That's not really a surprise. Recognizing large forces is not hard and it's likely that they will continue to exist in six months.

Where I was most wrong was in what I missed. The things I didn't predict are the ones that will cause the most chaos because they are the ones I couldn't plan for. It's not the predictions that surprise us, it's the things we didn't predict.

## Predictions for 2025

### Growing wealth inequality

Wealth inequality has been growing in the US. This means that there are fewer people who are able to spend and drive the economy. This has a lot of knock-on effects where markets are splitting into low-end and high-end with little in the middle.

Examples:

- Lambos
- Free-to-play games
- <https://www.marketplace.org/2025/01/13/magnificent-seven-ai-stocks-make-up-a-huge-part-of-the-sp-500-artificial-intelligence/>

### Climate Change

The world's climate is becoming more extreme and unpredictable. The world also doesn't seem like it's towards addressing it. We are in for more extreme weather situations.

Examples:

- Pacific Palisade's fire
- <https://arstechnica.com/cars/2025/01/only-5-percent-of-us-car-buyers-want-an-ev-according-to-survey/>
- <https://arstechnica.com/science/2025/01/its-official-2024-was-the-warmest-year-on-record/>
- [How Climate Denial is Fueling a U.S. Homeowners Insurance Crisis and Risking a 2008-Style Financial Meltdown](https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/02/how-climate-denial-is-fueling-a-u-s-homeowners-insurance-crisis-and-risking-a-2008-style-financial-meltdown.html)
- [Blackouts Are Becoming the Norm Can the U.S. Power Grid Be Saved](https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/02/blackouts-are-becoming-the-norm-can-the-u-s-power-grid-be-saved.html)

Threats:

- Bigger natural disasters
- Strained insurance systems

### Conservative Themes Increase

- Xenophobia
- Transphobia
- Racism
- Misogyny
- Nationalism
- Religious division

Examples:

- Twitter
- Trump
- Facebook
- Far-right media
- <https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/mark-zuckerberg-praises-benefits-masculine-energy-calls-corporate-america-culturally-neutered>

### Economic uncertainty

- <https://www.marketplace.org/2025/02/18/new-car-sales-drop-in-january-as-dealer-lots-fill-up/>
- <https://www.marketplace.org/2025/02/17/homebuyer-demand-down-listings-housing-market-confidence-uncertainty-inflation-interest-rates/>

### Inequality and Extraction

#### Continued Automation, Off-shoring and AI

Jobs continue to be off-shored or replaced. Worker productivity is going up, but there are fewer jobs in the US.

Examples:

-

#### Capital's growing power over labor

The capital owners have more and more leverage over workers. This comes from many people looking for work and companies being able to get away with more and more consolidation, meaning fewer potential employers who can abuse workers more.

There are some attempts to push back in the form of union drives, but the incoming administration is hostile to worker power.

Examples:

- Gig work
- Retirement is getting harder
- Fight for higher minimum wages

Effects:

- Harder to switch jobs
- Lower benefits
- Growing assets as companies are more profitable

#### Rising cost-of-living

Costs will increase, and not come down any time soon.

The Easton Fire this year will all but ensure that housing prices will remain high due to the lower stock and large number of displaced people. Supplies and labor will be tied up for years.

Examples:

- Housing
- Eggs
- Education

#### Increasing household debt

Is there a crash that would happen? Probably not because there's low risk of contagion on wall street.

#### Deteriorating Health Insurance

Healthcare in the US is getting harder to get and more expensive. We seem to be reaching the point that it is becoming a national crisis. It seems unlikely that our government will make meaningful reforms since thee area is very profitable.

Examples:

- Price of insulin
- Increased claim denials
- Luigi Mangione

### Technology

#### Continued growth of AI

AI will continue to grow over the next year. It will be searching for use cases and will refine the ones it has already. Agentic AI will continue to improve.

I think it's unlikely there will be any major leaps forward.

<https://www.marketplace.org/2025/01/13/magnificent-seven-ai-stocks-make-up-a-huge-part-of-the-sp-500-artificial-intelligence/>

#### Cryptocurrency

This will gain strength over the next year, but remain niche. Prices will continue to rise for the major currencies, even as scams and rug-pulls continue.

## What I missed

### Economic Chaos

- Tariffs
- Export controls
- Dropping regulatory enforcement
- Mass layoffs

Counter-acting forces

- The Fed has stayed largely independent

### Crackdown on Facts and Dissenting Opinions

- CBS capitulation
- Trump's war against any who disagree
- Firing of BLS director over poor jobs numbers
- Rewriting of federal information to align with ideological goals
- Installing more partisan oversight in agencies
- Attacks on universities and funding
- De-funding of CPB
- RFK and the health services

### Decreased rule of law

- Pardons
- Dropping of cases
- Bribes
- Extortion law suits, e.g. CBS.
- Likely illegal firing of appointees
